Copernicus: October 2023 - Exceptional temperature anomalies; 2023 virtually certain to be warmest year on record (2024)

Newsflash

Bonn, 08/11/2023

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes monthly climate bulletins reporting on the changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover and hydrological variables. All the reported findings are based on computer-generated analyses and according to ERA5 dataset, using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.

October 2023 – Surface air temperature and sea surface temperature highlights

• October 2023 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.30°C, 0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average for October and 0.40°C above the previous warmest October, in 2019.

• The global temperature anomaly for October 2023 was the second highest across all months in the ERA5 dataset, behind September 2023.

  See Also

  World of Change: Global TemperaturesHow much have temperatures risen in countries across the world?

• The month as a whole was 1.7°C warmer than an estimate of the October average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.

• For the calendar year to date, January to October, the global mean temperature for 2023 is the highest on record, 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, and 0.10°C higher than the ten-month average for 2016, currently the warmest calendar year on record.

• For Europe, October 2023 was the fourth warmest October on record, 1.30°C higher than the 1991-2020average.

• The average sea surface temperature for October over 60°S–60°N was 20.79°C, the highest on record for October.

• El Niño conditions continued to develop in the equatorial Pacific, although anomalies remain lower than those reached at this time of year during the development of the historically strong 1997 and 2015 events.
  

According to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): "October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated. We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, and is currently 1.43ºC above the preindustrial average. The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action going into COP28 has never been higher”.

October 2023 – Sea Ice highlights

• October marked the sixth consecutive month that Antarctic sea ice extent remained at record low levels for the time of year, with a monthly value 11% below average.
  
• Arctic sea ice extent reached its 7th lowest value for October, at 12% below average.

October 2023 – Hydrological variables highlights

• In October 2023, precipitation was above average across most of Europe: Storm Babet hit northern Europe, and storm Aline impacted Portugal and Spain, bringing heavy precipitation and flooding.

• Beyond Europe, it was wetter than average in several regions including: the southwest of North America, parts of the Arabian Peninsula, regions of Central Asia and Siberia, southeast China, Brazil, New Zealand and regions of southern Africa. Such conditions were often associated with the transit of cyclones which triggered heavy rainfall and substantial damage.

• It was drier than average in the southern USA and parts of Mexico both experiencing drought, in regions of central and easternmost Asia, and in most of the extratropical southern hemisphere, including Australia.
  

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More Information

More information about climate variables in October and climate updates of previous months as well as high-resolution graphics and the video can be downloaded here (this link can be accessed when the embargo is lifted).

Answers to frequently asked questions regarding temperature monitoring can be found here.

The findings about global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) presented here are based on SST data from ERA5 averaged over the 60°S–60°N domain. Note that ERA5 SSTs are estimates of the ocean temperature at about 10m depth (known as foundation temperature). The results, may differ from other SST products providing temperature estimates at different depths, such as 20cm depth for NOAA’s OISST.

Information about the C3S data set and how it is compiled:

Temperature and hydrological maps and data are from ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service’s ERA5 dataset.

Sea ice maps and data are from a combination of information from ERA5, as well as from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v2.1, Sea Ice Concentration CDR/ICDR v2 and fast-track data provided upon request by OSI SAF.

Regional area averages quoted here are the following longitude/latitude bounds:

Globe, 180W-180E, 90S-90N, over land and ocean surfaces.

Europe, 25W-40E, 34N-72N, over land surfaces only.

More information about the data can be found here.

Information on national records and impacts:

Information on national records and impacts are based on national and regional reports. For details see the respective temperature and hydrological C3S climate bulletin for the month.

C3S has followed the recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to use the most recent 30-year period for calculating climatological averages and changed to the reference period of 1991-2020 for its C3S Climate Bulletins covering January 2021 onward. Figures and graphics for both the new and previous period (1981-2010) are provided for transparency.

More information on the reference period used, can be found here. 

About Copernicus and ECMWF

Copernicus is a component of the European Union’s space programme, with funding by the EU, and is its flagship Earth observation programme, which operates through six thematic services: Atmosphere, Marine, Land, Climate Change, Security and Emergency. It delivers freely accessible operational data and services providing users with reliable and up-to-date information related to our planet and its environment. The programme is coordinated and managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the Member States, the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), EU Agencies and Mercator Océan, amongst others. 

ECMWF operates two services from the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme: the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). They also contribute to the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS), which is implemented by the EU Joint Research Centre (JRC). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 35 states. It is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. This data is fully available to the national meteorological services in the Member States. The supercomputer facility (and associated data archive) at ECMWF is one of the largest of its type in Europe and Member States can use 25% of its capacity for their own purposes. 

ECMWF has expanded its location across its Member States for some activities. In addition to an HQ in the UK and Computing Centre in Italy, offices with a focus on activities conducted in partnership with the EU, such as Copernicus, are in Bonn, Germany. 

 
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service website can be found at http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/ 

The Copernicus Climate Change Service website can be found at https://climate.copernicus.eu/ 

More information on Copernicus: www.copernicus.eu 

This press release is also available in other languages.